In a complex world, certainty is alluring, especially in our politics. We look for leaders who are unwavering in their beliefs and uncompromising their principles. Yet, in a democracy, social change depends on people changing their minds. In this talk, I will ask you to rethink what you value in your political leaders, describe what certainty does to the political process, and tell you a story about the time I said, ‘I don’t know,’ from a Republican convention stage.
These remarks were originally presented on 4-22-2020 at Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership.
At the start of the 2016 Presidential Election, I was the youngest woman in the United States to hold a top leadership position in a state legislature. I was also the only woman of color to hold that position as a Republican.
As the Republican leader, my goal was to build a party that valued inclusivity and progress, and I had partners around the country who were attempting the same.
Our opposition within the party wanted unapologetic conservativism, strict party unity, and a return to a different kind of America. But, we were fighting to diversify our candidates and our ideology.
For a little while, it looked like we might win.
Then, Donald Trump entered the Presidential race with increasingly bombastic rhetoric that fired up the coalitions of the party we’d been fighting for years.
I worked against him behind the scenes, but when he said that Japanese American internment might not have been a bad idea, I knew I was the only person in a position to criticize him publicly. So, I did.
I spoke against his ideas every chance I had. But, my national allies started falling away as they faced their own primaries and moderate Republicans became fundamentalist conservatives.
I remember one text in particular from a fellow party leader in a more conservative state, “I know you’re going to be disappointed with me, Beth, but I’m throwing my support behind Ted Cruz. He’s the only way to stop Trump. We’ve lost.”
But, I didn’t believe it was lost.
I worked with local leaders behind the scenes for months, trying to alert anyone who would listen to the dangers of an ideologically narrow party with a seemingly intolerant standard-bearer.
The Republican party was in crisis.
Before I took the stage at our State Convention, a month prior to Trump’s official nomination, I struggle to write a speech that would fulfill my role as the Republican leader and be true to my own convictions.
I couldn’t do it. There were too many questions, and I didn’t know all the answers. So, I did the only thing that felt right. I ditched traditional remarks and fielded audience questions from the stage. I reiterated my concerns about the nominee. I cast a different vision for the Republican party.
For the most part, I delivered my answers with certainty and confidence in the face an audience who responded with 15-minutes of loud, consistent booing.
But, there was one answer I hoped no one would ever see on a video replay.
From a microphone on the ballroom floor, a member asked, “Will you support Donald Trump if he is the Republican nominee?”
I paused, then answered, “I don’t know.”
I paid for that answer for years.
First, as a Republican who had a responsibility to support her party, then as a Democrat who had to explain over and over why I didn’t endorse Hillary Clinton in that moment.
Political insiders don’t value uncertainty within their ranks. Our systems reward leaders who are unwavering and adhere strictly to our chosen parties’ principles.
The industry of American politics is fueled by that certainty. When you’re sure of what you think, advertisers won’t try to change you. Fundraisers will target their appeals. And, parties will fuel your indignation.
But, we the people don’t benefit.
Our quest for certainty has broken our government, increased polarization, bolstered extremism, and destroyed our ability to think critically about the political actions and actors we support.
So, what I’m asking from you today, is to re-think your relationship with certainty and start saying, “I don’t know,” more often.
Science gives us a good idea of where to start.
Use the scientific method on your beliefs. Test your hypothesis. Don’t treat facts as immutable. Exercise your ability to doubt.
And, once you learn to do it, learn to lead with it.
A professor at the Harvard Business School found that a positive restaurant review that conveyed doubt was actually MORE convincing than the exact same positive review presented without doubt.
Similarly, a Yale School of Management study found that opposing something then changing positions could actually increase a politician’s persuasiveness.
If the politician appeared genuine and trustworthy, their change of position actually made voters think more about what the politician was advocating for.
Like the moment I said “I don’t know,” these studies found that if an opinion leader shows uncertainty, it will cause their audience to think more, consider their own opinion more seriously, and develop a deeper understanding about the issue at hand.
And, that is exactly what is missing from today’s politics.
Yes, there is a place for certainty. It leads people to action. But, uncertainty leads people to think for themselves.
And, I for one, wholeheartedly believe in the human ability to think critically and do good if overconfident leaders would get out of the way and just once in a while answer, “I don’t know.”
Copyright © 2020 by Beth Fukumoto. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted without attribution to the author.